Giving forecast

The page opens with one planning figure for the budget year — what to plan on, what you have recorded so far, and a cautious and an optimistic number either side of it. Under that sit the month-by-month and by-line tables, a short list of what makes this forecast less certain, and links onward to Giving and Deacon. Everything technical is still here, behind Open detailed analysis.

The forecast is built bottom-up: each segment (campus, and optionally membership) is forecast on its own seasonal history, then the segments are added together. That captures the fact that a young campus and a long-established one grow differently, while still reporting one total.

Fiscal year

Totals roll up to your fiscal year, set by the start month in Settings.

Cautious and optimistic

The low and high ends of the range. They come from conformal prediction — the model is scored against periods it never saw, and the size of its past misses sets the width. Change the confidence level under Detailed analysis.

In-sample accuracy

Under Detailed analysis: how the model performed on held-back history. Use it to decide how much to trust the line before you budget against it.

Unattributed giving

Gifts with no donor record attached. Called out in Things to know because it cannot be forecast from donor behaviour — treat it as planning uncertainty.

1. 1Pick the budget year at the top: this year, next year, or the next 12 months.
2. 2Read the central figure as the expectation, not the plan.
3. 3Budget committed costs to the cautious number, and treat the gap up to the central figure as your discretionary or contingency layer.
4. 4Read Things to know about this forecast. If unattributed giving is a large share, widen your contingency rather than trusting the range alone.
5. 5Open Detailed analysis when you need a single campus, a different grain, or the model scores.

Where to click: Reports → Giving → Forecast